CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-03-16T13:26:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-16T13:26Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45103/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. This event is not seen in STEREO A COR2 imagery in real-time due to a data gap starting at 2026-03-14T12:09Z. The source is an M2.7 flare and eruption from Active Region 14392 (S15E19) starting around 2026-03-13T12:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 imagery. A corresponding EUV wave is observed moving primarily northwest of the eruption site in GOES SUVI 195/304 imagery, with post-eruptive arcades visible starting around 2026-03-16T13:00Z. | Arrival information: Analysis of the complex arrival signature over 3/19 thorugh 3/22 indicates that we likely did not observe this CME separately from the other arrival signatures, and considering it a miss.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-19T18:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-03-16T12:15Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 600
Longitude (deg): E18
Latitude (deg): S15
Half-angular width (deg): 37

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Dean Hall

Lead Time: 61.35 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-03-17T04:39Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy